Published to Our Community April 30th, 2026 at 6:58 AM EST
Delivered to Inbox at 9:00 AM EST

-0.54% vs SPY -0.02%

#1 pick of the day, GNRC hit our target and led to meaningful gains together with our hedge of short IWM. However, the gains were not enough to offset losses in large WATT and RTX positions.

YTD: +64.00% vs SPY +4.65%

* Above performance reflects our CEO’s personal trading portfolio based on top trade ideas shared daily in this note, on live streams, and in Discord. Long-term account performance is not officially tracked. Individual results will vary.

It was a very eventful day with many factors to consider for today.

On the downside, WTI and Brent crude oil continued exploding well past $100 to new highs not seen in years and FOMC had a hawkish tilt - with an unprecedented dissent of 4 voters wanting to remove the easing bias from the statement. These two factors can lead to lowered expectations of future rate cuts; and infact, bonds are modestly down and rates are up since the decision. These factors could weigh on small caps and the IWM index.

However on the bright side, GOOGL and AMZN reported blow-out numbers and AI capex spend was raised among the group of GOOGL AMZN META and MSFT which reported last night. Collectively, between these four companies, 2026 capex guidance was raised to $710B vs $660B prior guide.

This $50B increase seems very material, however one should consider that percentage-wise this is only a 7.5% increase and AMZN didn’t increase capex at all. While even 7.5% can be seen as material, we did see the SOXL semiconductor index already explode 27% in the last month and NVDA ran 5% in just the last few days as investors were positioning ahead of the news. While qualitative guidance was given that capex could rise even further in 2027, allaying most fears of peak capex, one has to wonder if the recent move already priced-in last night’s news.

Other positive events include blowout earnings from Samsung which has bullish read-though for AI memory and infrastructure names, and INTC rocketing to $100 after President Trump boasted about Intel’s stock performance and the $30B return to date for the U.S. government.

Given all of these factors and AAPL earnings tonight, we advise staying cautious (yellow alert) due to high oil prices and the possibility of sell the news in the semiconductor space.

However, there is a lot of momentum and money flow in the market to the extent that even if we see a sell-off in the big AI names, select opportunities can still be found which can outperform in the near-term.

Day Signal: 🟡

Swing Signal: 🟢(selective)

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