Last Week’s Performance
Published to Our Community April 20th, 2026 at 6:15 AM EST
Delivered to Inbox at 9:00 AM EST
Friday: +2.41% vs SPY +1.21%
Week: +11.65% vs SPY +4.52%
Top picks HIMS and HOOD led the way on Friday, more than offsetting losses in top pick UMAC. It was our best week since early March when we were correctly positioned for the breakout of war on March 1st. The outperformance last week was largely owed to our accurate prediction in HOOD which paid us on both Wednesday and Friday.
YTD: +64.32% vs SPY -0.07%
* Above performance reflects our CEO’s personal trading portfolio based on top trade ideas shared daily in this note, on live streams, and in Discord. Long-term account performance is not officially tracked. Individual results will vary.
Macro Discussion
The market has completed a historic run over the last 12 sessions in a V-shaped recovery for the record books.
Markets have gone from oversold to overbought (on the daily RSI) in record time in a move similar to the COVID crash recovery and the Liberation Day crash recovery.
But is the rally really complete?
Historically, rallies like this lead to significant returns over the next 12 months. This can clearly be seen on the weekly chart where the RSI is actually not yet overbought.
On Friday afternoon we issued a yellow-alert signal in our Discord, raised cash, and bought protective puts, ahead of the weekend, fearful of a sell-the-news event today if a deal was struck with Iran.
But what we are seeing on the technicals so far this morning is very constructive after seemingly bad news on the Iran front. (See Trump world section for details).
While oil shot up 8% initially, it got rejected at the 20 DMA, and the major indices only saw a modest pullback of less than 1% to a strong support level which held, and has now rebounded to just down 0.5% at the time of this publication.
Even if one is extremely bullish for the rest of 2026, which we are, at some point you will likely see a profit-taking pullback based on the mere fact we have come so far, so fast. This is what we were positioning for on Friday, but given this morning’s price action, it admittedly may not be ready to come yet.
Even if we do see a meaningful pullback, many high beta, highly shorted growth stocks have just started breaking out in recent days (with many breaking above the 50 DMA), and could see a continued rally even in the face of a market pullback.
For these reasons, we are maintaining a green swing signal but out of an abundance of caution shifting to yellow alert on the day signal. If markets go from red to green this morning (we think they can), we will likely switch back to a green signal tomorrow. Infact, we will be looking to ring the register on our protective puts at the open today.
It should be noted that earnings season picks up in earnest this week, with TSLA IBM and INTC all reporting. Look for our daily afternoon livestreams to resume as we look to capitalize on rapid re-ratings in extended hours.
Day Signal: 🟡
Swing Signal: 🟢
Trump World
War
🆕Iran: Weekend escalation intensified after Iran fired on multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including attacks near at least two ships, as tensions flared following the U.S. naval blockade. The U.S. then fired on and seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade—reportedly linked to shipments from China—marking the first direct interception and adding a China dimension to the conflict. Despite this, Iran is now reviewing an updated U.S. peace proposal this morning, signaling negotiations remain active even as military pressure and maritime clashes continue.
🆕Ukraine: Diplomatic signals around a potential Russia-Ukraine framework continue to circulate, with no formal deal announced. Treasury extended a waiver allowing continued purchases of Russian oil through May 16 to ease global supply pressures, even as Kyiv said after meetings in Washington that it remains confident in ongoing U.S. support and engagement.
Industry
🆕Rare Earths: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is drafting a “plurilateral” agreement with a select group of countries on critical minerals that includes a price floor, signaling efforts to stabilize pricing and incentivize non-China supply chains.
🆕Cannabis: Bipartisan legislation aimed at preventing renewed federal criminalization of hemp is expected to be introduced this week, according to Senator Rand Paul, potentially preserving regulatory clarity for the U.S. hemp and CBD market
Last Week: The U.S. is advancing a critical-minerals trade pact with a price floor to support non-China supply chains, while bipartisan legislation aims to preserve hemp and CBD market stability. Meanwhile, the SEC’s PDT overhaul, FAA clearance of counter-drone lasers, Pentagon exploring defense manufacturing expansion with auto companies, and HHS/FDA easing of peptide restrictions remain in focus.
Trade
🆕Tariff Refunds: The administration’s tariff-refund system opens today, allowing importers to begin filing claims on duties collected under the Trump tariffs that were later struck down by the Supreme Court. That turns the trade story from courtroom fallout into a live cash-flow event for importers starting this morning.
🆕China: Trump said Xi was “very happy” the Strait of Hormuz was reopening and used that to reinforce that the May 14–15 Beijing trip remains on track. The trip still looks aimed at stabilizing the relationship rather than announcing any fresh tariff escalation or rollback right now.
Proximal Catalysts (1 to 2 days)
ERs of Note:
Monday: none of note.
Tuesday: VICR NOC RTX UNH then IBKR ISRG after the close.
Wednesday:T BA VRT then CACI LRCX NOW LUV IBM QS TSLA after the close
Thursday: IRDM FISV MBLY LMT FCX PENN AAL then VRSN INTC after the close.
Friday: none of note.
Economic Data of Note:
Tuesday 8:30am: Retail sales
Thursday 8:30am: Joblessclaims
Friday 10am: Consumer sentiment
KRKNF last Thursday morning, Kraken Robotics announced $28 million in SeaPower battery and Kraken SAS orders.
AAOI expands its Houston-area footprint to 900,000 square feet to increase capacity and support future growth.
LUNR RKLB AVAV SNDK FLY all saw key price target increases on Friday from respected analysts.
⚠️INFQ be aware, after a recent catalyst-fueled run,lockup expiry ends today after de-SPAC completed late last year.
AVEX new drone IPO, endorsed by Kris Tuttle of IPO Candy and by Jim Cramer.
🩸ASTS failed launch yesterday of a Blue-Bird satellite by New Glenn. The satellite will be de-orbited and the cost will be covered by insurance - but the timeline will suffer.
🔥MRVL Google teams up with Marvell Technology to build new AI chips, invests heavily in TPU strategy amid Nvidia dominance: report.
NKTR to hold conference call at 8am this morning to discuss 52-week topline results from the 16-week extension treatment period for its REZOLVE-AA Phase 2b study of rezpegaldesleukin in alopecia areata.
Top Trade Ideas
Active Re-Ratings
HIMS is in a sky blue breakout and despite the 3% drop this morning, we believe a $30 swing target is still in play.
HOOD and BULL similarly we don’t think the move in HOOD is over with a $95 to $107 swing target in play especially as earnings approaches next Tuesday. The BULL chart might be the best of the three this morning as it showed relative strength overnight. $7.57 swing target has a possibility of being reached today or tomorrow.
UMAC saw surprising poor performance on Friday and we decided to turn that day-trade into a swing trade. This stock could be highly volatile today into tomorrow with $12.50 support and initial targets of $14.71 to $15.61. Given the poor performance on Friday, the stock may see a bounce back to these levels today.
RTX reports tomorrow. We believe this stock is the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war and positive guidance could send the stock above $215. Consider a small lotto play with $200 weekly calls (last trade $3.80).
INVE our swing of the past month is finally waking up. There has been unusual price action since Friday which we noted several times in our Discord. The unusual price action continues this morning. It’s possible a large community initiated coverage on this name on Friday and may go public with their thesis today. We believe INVE saw an inflection catalyst last month and as it’s trading at a negative EV, is an attractive risk-reward. We have been holding a swing position since our initiation and will be ready to take some profits today if the stock pops sharply. $4.72 to $5.27 are possible targets if volume and an endorsement comes in by an influencer. However, either way, we may begin trimming our position at any prices over $4 this morning as we have been patiently waiting on this name for too long.
ASTS we will have an eye on this name for scalps after bad news sent the stock right to $72 support at the 200 DMA. Secondary support at the 50 WMA at $66 is possible.
Core Swings (this is not a complete list of all swings. Refer to allocation screen shot below for a full list)
🆕Given our green signal, many daily picks will now be swung overnight and not reflected in this section. See screenshot below for full list of swings.
SATS price target updated. We now see $140s to $150s possible as SpaceX IPO nears.
INVE awaiting re-rating after recent inflection catalyst. High cash position with negative EV means limited downside allowing us to have patience.
Current Allocations (Day/Swing Account)
SATS — 8.87%
INVE — 7.43%
SIVEF — 2.88%
UMAC 14 Call (May 08 2026) — 1.16%
QQQ 645 Put (Apr 21 2026) — 0.73%
HOOD 93 Call (Apr 24 2026) — 0.71%
UMAC 15 Call (Apr 24 2026) — 0.17%
UMAC 16 Call (Apr 24 2026) — 0.11%Want to up your game further? Go to storytrading.com where you can sign up for our Discord trading community. In addition to daily live streams and chat rooms, you’ll receive this Morning Note every day before 7am EST.
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