June 17, 2026

#1 pick of the day, QQQ, along with AAOI failed yesterday; however, most of our top picks did well, especially NBIS SATS and UMAC. Also, OSS and EOSE, top picks from the Morning Show added additional alpha.

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Markets dropped meaningfully yesterday ahead of FOMC today but we are maintaining our green signal - with some reservations.

First, a look at the technicals. Although indices dropped meaningfully, they are still above the breakout level and so far, simply filling the gap. A gap-fill to $724 on QQQ would be a routine correction in a bull market and not alarming at all. Furthermore, our north stars, TLT and USO continue providing positive signals through this morning. TLT appears headed to the 200 DMA and USO is still dropping, following on its collapse since the Iran peace deal was announced.

Further, while FOMC is today, we will not drop to yellow-alert as we often do on FOMC day. Our hunch is that President Trump rushed a peace deal through the last few days in order to arm Kevin Warsh with the cover needed to provide dovish commentary and guidance. We expect Mr. Warsh will emphasize that the Fed is now forward-looking and that given the end of the War and recent drop in oil prices, interest rate hikes will not be necessary, and that instead, cuts may become appropriate later this year.

Therefore, we are making the unusual move of staying in a green signal ahead of this event, and we expect QQQ to hit our swing target of $749+ this week and possibly later today.

This could be the wrong call, so we don’t advise a meaningful bet on this outcome but we also don’t think being overly cautious into this particular FOMC will be rewarded.

All that being said, we give this positive outlook with a tremendous amount of caution and skepticism over the intermediate-term. While yesterday, we posited that the Iran deal shows that Trump is willing to do whatever it takes to keep markets elevated through the election, we now recognize, it is not completely in his control.

As more details emerge of the MOU with Iran, it is increasingly looking like President Trump completely capitulated and that Iran now holds all the cards. President Trump was motivated by lowering oil prices ahead of the election, however he is currently facing severe backlash from both the left and his own party. Whatever he may gain in the public eye by lowering oil prices, he may lose, and then some, by looking weak towards Iran. It’s therefore possible that Trump does an about-face on this deal. The calculation going forward isn’t just about oil prices. He must now weigh that vs the impact of looking weak and having capitulated to Iran in a move which may hurt his legacy.

Furthermore and perhaps more alarming, the way this deal is structured, it places Iran in a position of power where they may derive tremendous benefits over the next 60 days, but then close the Strait of Hormuz again ahead of the election to deal Trump a fatal blow in the upcoming election.

So while we are maintaining a green signal today because we expect a positive FOMC, we are now no longer convinced the market can pump into the election. More geopolitical-fueled volatility may be ahead.

Today’s Signal: 🟢

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