June 18, 2026

#1 pick of the day, EOSE, chosen during the Morning Show delivered, along with NEOV, NBIS, and BULL. However, SATS underperformed and our green signal was difficult to execute on during and after the FOMC presser.

*This newsletter does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. StoryTrading contributors may buy, sell, or liquidate positions discussed at any time without notice. See storytrading.com/disclaimer for important disclosures.

It was a big day yesterday. Two major events occurred which are impacting markets this morning: Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC presser as Fed chair, and the signing of the peace deal between the United States and Iran.

We made the unusual call of staying at a green signal into the FOMC event and it appears to have been the right call. However, the outcome of the FOMC event was a bit more nuanced than we expected. The FOMC had something for everyone. Both bears and bulls saw what they wanted. The hawkish dot plot and Kevin Warsh’s commitment to “price stability” led to a mostly bearish initial narrative by the financial media. However, for us, the key inflection point during the presser was when Kevin Warsh repeatedly implied that the Fed would rely more on real-time indicators in the future rather than lagging indicators. This is what we predicted he would say in our Morning Note yesterday and it ties right into the Iran deal. It’s also why we believe Trump rushed to get the Iran deal done this week.

The connection is simple. Oil has rapidly crashed over the past week as a direct result of the peace deal. If the Fed, during the same week announces a lesser reliance on lagging data and greater reliance on real-time indicators, then it completely mutes any hawkish interpretation from the dot plot, allowing bullish participants to speculate that there won’t be any rate hikes this year.

As a result of these two choreographed events, markets are surging this morning and we are maintaining our green signal, looking for QQQ to break above $749 to new all-time highs in the near-term.

That being said, we still carry deep reservations about the Iran deal and believe we can see significant market turmoil later this year, but in the meantime, we believe markets will be bullish today ahead of the three-day weekend.

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